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A decade following the UK embarked on a hurried referendum that divided the nation and unleashed turmoil, a warning is issued from beyond the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.

Authorities and voters entered unwittingly Brexit and the same might transpire with a national vote on a unified Ireland, triggering upheavals for which no one is ready.

That conveys the caution from two leading commentators from either side of the Irish border who have teamed up to scrutinise the pros and cons of Northern Ireland departing the UK to establish a different country with the Republic of Ireland.

Administrative Institutions Ill-Equipped

Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have found that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are woefully unready for a potentially contentious and transformative public vote.

"The lesson of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that developments can arise suddenly and can gather momentum swiftly," O’Toole stated. "It is my view that the governmental framework of our archipelago remains extremely volatile."

Released Volume Aims to Provoke Discussion

The duo have studied the political, financial and cultural reasons for any constitutional change in a publication, Examining Irish Unification, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.

They hope to provoke discussion on the topic with a series of public talks that will take them to Westminster soon.

"What troubles everybody, or ought to concern all involved, is the Brexit vote of 2016," commented the analyst.

"We should prevent a national vote on a yes-no, vague proposition whose implications have not been spelled out because then you end up with an extremely divided society where the losing side are not reconciled to losing and the people who have won don't know quite what it is that they have gained."

Governmental Mandate

Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland official must arrange a public vote on Irish unification if it appears likely that a majority would support.

Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups argue such a time is looming, and a group named Ireland’s Future has rallied support, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists downplay the prospect, leaving it unclear if and when there could be a national vote.

Lack of Serious Debate

Ideological statements supporting and opposing unification has masked the lack of informed dialogue, noted McBride.

"Many are for or against the notion but the concrete planning which could extend past that to realise it is mostly absent. A lot has occurred in universities but very few elected officials or campaigners are willing to participate with the fundamentals. As an example, which kind of country might be preferred? Centralised? Federal?"

Publication's Method

In the volume, none of the commentators supports unification or the status quo. They writes two essays that strive for neutrality in presenting the argument for a united Ireland and the rationale opposing it, marshalling economic and societal data, historical precedents and structural examples.

Debates encompass national emblems, duties, health services, elderly benefits, sovereign debt obligations and the danger of unionist unrest. The goal is to educate and encourage conversation.

"There is significant curiosity in the issue but there hasn't quite been a debate," stated the writer. "Dialogue indicates an acceptance of the concept that there may exist reasonable perspectives on both sides."

Simultaneous Plebiscites

A public vote in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the republic, where voters claim they prefer unity but reject paying higher taxes or implementing a alternative symbol to acknowledge pro-UK communities' British culture.

"Policymakers in Ireland should determine what the plan from nationalist groups is beyond just saying: 'We want a united Ireland and we value you'," remarked O’Toole.

Probability of Referendum

The journalist considers a national vote in his era is possible and that it might occur suddenly. "There might be just a reckless or a ill-advised or a incompetent government minister who states: 'We should proceed and settle the matter.'"

Both pro-unification advocates and unionists have reasonable, justified arguments, he commented. "Somebody will win here and somebody will ultimately lose but both parties has has something to acquire from the other's viewpoints."

Appeal for More Extensive Debate

Westminster should join the dialogue, stated the analyst. "This involves the United Kingdom. It's a UK matter as much as it is an Irish issue."